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Predictions for 2010 a Review

December 27th, 2010 · 1 Comment

In December of 2009 I wrote a series of predictions.  Let’s see how I did, shall we?  (This should be fun.)

Mobile:

  • I predicted Android and iPhones would be under $50 or free.  MISS
    As this article points out they are still running about $200 with a 2 year contract for the top of line phones.  Manufacturer’s keep adding new features to pump up the price.  The same thing happened with PC’s (and still happens to a large extent.) with manufacturers adding more and more features, which most people will never use.  But the new features support the prices.  I don’t see the smart phone market collapsing for a few more years.
  • Verizon would see network stress similar to AT&T’s stress from the advance of the Android phone market.  MISS
    While Verizon has had some problems, it hasn’t been a major news story yet.  But Android phones with their native multitasking capability are proving to be data hogs and will likely start to cause problems following this holiday season with lots of new devices expected to come online.
  • A rush to Location Aware Advertising.  SORT OF
    While it’s not been an exact rush, applications for Location Based Services have seen significant growth with new and old apps like; ShopKick, Facebook Places, GoWalla, FourSquare and others.  The one I’m watching is ShopKick because they’ve gotten major retailers like Macy’s and American Eagle, Best Buy and others to install hardware in their stores.
  • Companies would find smartphones circumvent firewalls allowing employees to use social media at will. RIGHT
    The National Labor Relations Board has stated that employees talking about working conditions on social networks like Facebook is a “protected form of speech”.  This means that a company can’t forbid employees from discussing work on social media.  This ruling is under review, so it may be changed, but I think it’s evident that employees will discuss work on social networks and companies can’t stop them.

Social Networks:

  • Facebook will dominate social networks. YES
    Facebook dominates social networks despite numerous front page security and privacy issues it has become the unstoppable force in social networking.
  • Twitter growth will flatten and become a Communicators Platform SORT OF
    Twitter’s growth has flattened, but not stopped.  And it is dominated by people talking and not listening.  It is now the place to find influencers, press, bloggers and others who wish to communicate their point of view to larger audiences.  Most professional communicators are on Twitter but recent demographics are showing a surprising turn to younger audiences adopting Twitter.  It remains to be seen what will happen with Twitter in the coming years.

Online Marketing:

  • Email will remain the top marketing tool. YES
    Email is still the #1 marketing tool of choice because of it’s ubiquity, and universal access.  However, businesses targeting younger audiences are finding email usage dropping precipitously and are moving into social media, texting, Facebook and other alternate means of communicating with these audiences.
  • Companies will begin using social media as a touch point tool. YES
    The proliferation of major brands on Twitter, Facebook and YouTube is unprecedented.  Last year at this time you could count the major brands, chain stores and retailers on Facebook on your hands.  Today, it’s harder to find a major brand that doesn’t have a Facebook presence.  However, many major brands still have a long way to go towards learning what “interaction” is online.
  • Many companies will try to repurpose marketing material from other media for social media, and fail. YES
    An example is the comparison I did of Verizon and AT&T’s Facebook pages. Verizon’s is simply an ad, using catalog pages from their website.  Way too many companies today don’t try to interact with their fans and customers on Facebook and other social media.  This leads to dead pages with no activity, or worse only criticism.  They will learn in the next year or two how to incorporate social media into their marketing mix.

So all in all, I was more right than wrong in my predictions for 2010.  But some of them weren’t going out on a limb so it was easy to get hits with them.  I seemed to missed mostly in the Mobile area, while my Online Marketing predictions were mainly correct.

I’m writing my predictions for 2011 now.  Wonder how I’ll do?  Now it’s your turn-

Give me some of your 1 Good Reasons for predicting online marketing and social media for 2011.

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