BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)- 2010 is going to be the year of mobile- apps, connections and ads will all grow exponentially However it’s easy to grow 2000% when your market penetration is less than 1%. Trail blazing early adopters will start to offer mobile ads and create some great case studies by year’s end. However the growth that matters, that will effect the jobs of marketers trying to sell products will be the evolution of ads online and the demise of ads offline.
* With the introduction of Google’s Android I’ll predict that you will be able to buy an iPhone and an Android for under $50 by the end of 2010. It may go all the way to “free” with a 2 year contract.
* Verizon’s Android users will discover the tremendous data needs that real smart phones place on a data network. AT&T will still suck for iPhone users, but Verizon will suck just as much by year’s end for Android users too. This is because using a smart phone as, for example a location aware, active GPS device will require constant data transmission. That’s not happened with Verizon’s network yet and we’re seeing AT&T being crushed under the pressure of the currently expensive and relatively low volume (in relation to all cell phones) of the iPhone. Check out my review of the free crowd sourced GPS mobile app Waze for a glimpse of the future.
* Retailers will discover that well to do people who have disposable income are the majority of the people carrying smart phones. This will fuel a mobile location aware advertising rush.
* Companies will discover that smart phones allow people to circumvent firewalls blocking access to sites like Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. And Companies will also discover that they can’t prevent employees from using, Facebook, uploading video of outrageous behavior. Which will cause further embarrassment in the social sphere for some major names who have been avoiding the social sphere until now.
* There will be new social networks created in 2010, but no one will care. I believe that Facebook has crossed the point of no return. It is not populated mainly by technically savvy people any longer which means there will be stronger inertia to moving to on to the next shiny new thing. The primary growth in Facebook is people over 35 years old, and this group isn’t easy to move. The mass exodus that killed Friendster and MySpace was fueled by younger people more adept and comfortable with technology than the latest wave of Facebook users. For these reasons I feel that Facebook has now become Googleized and is ingrained into the public consciousness and will not be easily replaced.
* Twitter will evolve into a Professional Communicator’s Platform, but maintain its fringe status. With only 30MM users it remains a curiosity with flattening growth. I observed this most recently a holiday parties where I asked “civilians” what they thought of Twitter. Universally people found it to be a curiosity and poorly understood. It is most useful for those of us wishing to reach many people at once, most people don’t want to do that. Therefore it will become even more the place to find bloggers and influencers.
* For real legitimate online B2B or B2C marketing email will remain the top marketing tool. That is because it is still the most effective and ubiquitous tool available.
* Many companies will discover the effectiveness of using social media for touch points and maintaining contact with clients, either via Facebook, YouTube or Twitter. Many others will discover social media for customer service.
* Too many companies will try social media in a ham handed way with repurposed material from other media and fail miserably. They will fail because they will try to broadcast a monologue instead of preparing to engage in a dialog.
Give me 1 Good Reason why you won’t be looking at mobile and social media marketing in 2010?